What’s the probability of a white Christmas?
Many believe that Christmas and snow go hand-in-hand. It’s the time of year when the kids get to visit Frosty, the ski season is in full swing, and you hear carolers singing about snow.
What are the chances of a white Christmas in Kelowna and Penticton?
We break it down for you based on climatic statistics. For the sake of this article, the definition of a white Christmas is when we see 2 centimetres or more of snow on the ground.
2014 to 2017 in Kelowna
Let’s recap the last few years.
In 2017, although there was no snow reported at the Kelowna weather station on Dec. 25, there was 7 cm of snow on the ground.
Back in 2016, there was also no new snow reported on Dec. 25, but there was 15 cm on the ground for Christmas.
Three years ago in 2015, we had 4 cm of snow on the ground for Christmas but also no snow during that day.
So the last three years, we’ve had snow on the ground and temperatures on Christmas Day stayed below freezing through the day’s 24 hour period.
In 2014, it was a different story. There was no snow on the ground that year and the daytime high on Dec. 25 was over 3°C.
1955 to 2018 in Kelowna
In the last 64 years, the chance of a white Christmas was about 64%. Out of those 64 years, we had 23 green Christmases.
We have seen the average depth of snow on the ground (cm) change on Christmas morning from 8 cm between the years 1965-1984 to about 5 cm from 1994-2018.
2014 to 2017 in Penticton
In 2017, the Penticton airport had 10 cm of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, in addition to 0.4 cm of snow that fell on Dec. 25.
Penticton had 5 cm of snow on the ground in 2016 but no additional snow that day.
A total of 0.8 cm of snow fell in 2015, making the total 8 cm of snow on the ground that year for Christmas.
Like other parts of the Okanagan Valley, 2014’s Christmas was on the mild side with no snow on the ground or in the air that day.
1955 to 2018 in Penticton
The South Okanagan generally receives less precipitation compared to the Central Okanagan, and that also translates to a lower probability of a white Christmas.
The chance of having 2 cm of snow on the ground in Penticton on Christmas Day was about 33% in the last 64 years. 43 Christmases between 1955 and 2018 were green.
What will happen this year?
Unfortunately Christmas is still too far away for us to have any confidence on a forecast for Dec. 25, 2018.
But I will say that at this time there are signs that point to a cooler trend over the days leading up to Christmas this year… Christmas weather details to come!
