Above normal temperatures, accelerated snowmelt point towards another year of drought in BC

The low provincial snowpack, accelerated snowmelt, drought impacts from previous seasons and the likelihood of above normal temperatures for almost the entire province are all pointing towards another year of drought.

According to the BC River Forecast Centre, the June 1 Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin is meant to highlight if snowmelt is earlier than normal, delayed or melting at seasonal rates.

Data collected on June 1 shows that the provincial snowpack is below normal, averaging 44% of normal (56% below normal).

That is down from the 61% of normal levels recorded on May 15.

Snow basins range from 0% in the Similkameen and Central Coast to 148% of normal in the Stikine region.

The Okanagan is sitting at 44% of normal, which is down from 66% in mid-May.

A bit further north, there was once again insufficient data collected for the Lower Thompson basin, which includes Kamloops and Merritt. The North Thompson is at 65% of normal and the South Thompson, which includes the Shuswap, is at 53%.

By this time of the year, about half of the seasonal snowmelt has melted, on average. However, the data shows that two thirds of the snowpack has melted, which has been driven by normal temperatures in April and hot weather in the final week of May in the Interior.

As a result, there is a below normal risk of spring flooding and any local flooding would be caused by extreme rainfall.

Rainfall varied across the province in May. Prince Rupert measured 289 mm of rain, which was the second highest May total since 1909. Meanwhile, Fort Nelson measured the second lowest May precipitation total since 1938.

Despite a high-pressure ridge in the final week of May, which caused some warmer and drier weather in the South Interior, most of the province received near normal rain amounts.

According to the seasonal weather forecast from late-May by Environment Canada, there is a greater likelihood of above normal temperatures for almost all of BC from June to August, which will play a big role in drought conditions this year.

As of June 5, the BC Drought Portal is showing that just under 52% of the province is at drought level zero and only one basin (the East Peace) is at drought level four.

“There is a minor to moderate (40-50%) likelihood of below normal precipitation during the summer period (June-August) for most of the province, with the exception of the Northwest, the North Coast, and portions of the southern half of the province, which show no precipitation signal,” the River Forecast Centre said in the bulletin.

Although the rate at which snowpacks melt can contribute to drought, the factors of drought are multifaceted.

The River Forecast Centre says spring and summer temperatures and precipitation trends will play a bigger role in how drought impacts different parts of BC.

The final Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin of 2025 is scheduled to be released on June 19 or 20.