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Which industries will feel the pinch of Trump's tariffs the hardest?

US President Donald Trump signed an order Saturday to impose tariffs of 10 per cent on Canadian energy and 25 per cent on everything else beginning on Feb. 4.

Statistics Canada says the value of Canadian exports to the United States in 2023 exceeded $594 billion.

<who> Photo Credit: Canadian Press

More than 43 per cent of that came from just six industries: oil and gas extraction, oil and gas refining, auto manufacturing, aluminum production and processing, aerospace and crop and animal production

The US is by far Canada's largest trading partner. While Canada's total exports to the US from all industries came to $594 billion in 2023, its total exports to all other countries combined reached only $174 billion — meaning more than 77 per cent of all Canadian exports went to the US.

Here's a look at the industries that will be hit the hardest:

1. Non-oilsands oil and gas extraction

Total US exports in 2023: $143 billion.

US exports as a share of total exports: 97 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of US exports: $121.6 billion from Alberta, $11.7 billion from Saskatchewan, $6.8 billion from Newfoundland and Labrador and $6.7 billion from British Columbia.

Estimated additional cost of 10 per cent tariffs: $14.3 billion.


2. Automobile and light-duty motor vehicle manufacturing

Total US exports in 2023: $53 billion.

US exports as a share of total exports: 96 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of US exports: $52.5 billion from Ontario, $24 million from Quebec and $17 million from Alberta.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $13.3 billion.


3. Canadian petroleum refineries

Total US exports: $23 billion

US exports as a share of total exports: 85 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of US exports: $10.1 billion from New Brunswick, $6 billion from Alberta, $3.7 billion from Quebec and $2.4 billion from Ontario.

Estimated additional cost of 10 per cent tariffs: $2.3 billion.


4. Crop and animal production

Total US exports: $13.1 billion

US exports as a share of total exports: 32 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of US exports: $4.7 billion from Ontario, $1.9 billion from Alberta, $1.8 billion from Saskatchewan, $1.4 billion from British Columbia, $1.2 billion from Quebec and $1.2 billion from Manitoba.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.3 billion.


5. Aluminum production and processing

Total US exports: $12.8 billion.

US exports as a share of total exports: 93 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of US exports: $9.8 billion from Quebec, $2 billion from Ontario and $915 million from British Columbia.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.2 billion.


6. Aerospace production and parts

Total US exports: $12.8 billion

US exports as a share of total exports: 67 per cent

Provincial breakdown of US exports: $8.8 billion from Quebec, $3.2 billion from Ontario and $374 million from Manitoba.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.2 billion.



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